⅔think in odds.
THE DAILY PROBABILITY PUZZLENovember 13, 2026 · ET
No. 051Bayesian reasoningMedium6 min

A sensor alert with a 5% prior

A machine is jammed with a chance of 1/20. Its sensor alerts with a chance of 9/10 when jammed, and 1/10 when not jammed. It alerts.

What is the chance the machine is jammed?

Work it out (optional)
PreviousReleased 2026-11-13Next puzzle