⅔think in odds.
THE DAILY PROBABILITY PUZZLESeptember 26, 2026 · ET
No. 003Bayesian reasoningEasy4 min

The coin with two heads

Choose uniformly among a fair coin, a two-headed coin, and a two-tailed coin. Flip it once and observe heads.

What is the probability you chose the two-headed coin?

Released 2026-09-26