⅔think in odds.
THE DAILY PROBABILITY PUZZLEOctober 20, 2026 · ET
No. 027Bayesian reasoningMedium7 min

You open an envelope with $8

Choose a starting amount from $1, $2, $4, or $8, all equally likely. Put that amount in one envelope and twice that amount in another.

Choose either envelope with equal chances and open it. You find $8. Given that, what is the average amount in the other envelope?

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